It doesn’t seem like there will be any winners after the US essentially declared a trade war with the rest of the world – except, perhaps, for Donald Trump and his friends.
Stock markets around the world plunged to almost record low levels after tariffs went into effect following the US president’s so-called ‘Liberation Day’, which he promised would Make America Wealthy Again.
He may have since issued a 90-day freeze on introducing so-called reciprocal tariffs (for everyone except China, that is) but the introduction of those tariffs in the first place has caused volatility across the globe – except maybe for those who are already wealthy.
PM Keir Starmer has warned that Trump’s sweeping tariffs have ended the ‘world as we knew it’, insisting that ‘nobody wins from a trade war’.
But some UK cities will be hit harder than others, depending on where these industries are based.
Centre for Cities, a charity ‘dedicated to improving the economies of the UK’s largest cities and towns’, has revealed the impact of Trump’s tariffs on our cities.
Which UK city will be hit hardest by Trump’s tariffs?
Centre for Cities says: ‘The global tariff imposed by the United States looks set to significantly affect the UK economy.
‘Every corner of the UK will feel the economic impact, but the damage will not spread equally across places.
‘Places with more goods exports, to the US or in general, can expect stronger impacts.
‘The US tariffs will affect all goods exports from the UK. So the share of US goods exports in all exports is a good way to measure the exposure of a city to the tariffs.’
According to shares of US goods exports in total exports by place-based units of analysis (PUA), the most exposed city is Coventry, where 22.1% of its total exports are estimated to go to the US.
This is followed by Derby (19.9%), Telford (13.3%), Worthing (15.3%) and Blackpool (13.3%).
London is one of the least impacted cities, with only about 3.2% of its exports heading to the US.
York is the least exposed city with about 2.7% of its exports heading to the United States, meaning it is about seven times less exposed than Coventry – with Edinburgh following shortly behind at 2.9%.
‘These cities will face less direct tariff impacts because their economies are more service-oriented, and their goods exports make up a small share of their export industries,’ Centre for Cities said.
The direct impact of impacts on different regions of the UK is also uneven, they said, with places outside London and the Greater South East region likely to be hit much harder.
Centre for Cities explained: ‘By both metrics, the West Midlands would be the most exposed area.
‘The region has a large machinery and transport sector, including car manufacturing. Wales would be the second most exposed area, though the impacts are more severe outside cities.
‘The greater south east, including London, is less exposed than the rest of the country since its economy depends more on services.
‘The greater south east is also more economically prosperous and productive than the rest of the country. So the tariffs could have a larger impact on struggling economies.’
The impact of Trump’s tariffs could therefore reinforce existing disparities across the UK’s economy, with areas outside the south east already generally being less productive.
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‘As the government aims to “shelter British businesses” from the impacts of tariffs, the data shows that it will need to factor in geography as part of its response,’ the spokesperson added.
What UK goods are being hit by the tariffs?
Several UK industries will be hit unless the UK can negotiate a new trade deal, amid speculation the NHS could be on the table.
Pharmaceuticals, beer, steel and aluminium, and cars and the automotive industry are likely to be the worst impacted by Trump’s tariffs – and our mortgage rates could also be hit.
In response, the UK government suggested it could hit toilet paper, maracas, condoms, antique mosaics and 8,000 more products with import taxes if talks with the US don’t work out.
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